H�b```���L�@(�����1�Y��W�@p?͠{`�B��i�Y��w�lYl�.�. This track was unusual because, typically, TCs in the SWIO tend to track southwest and then recurve southeast, whereas the smaller numbers of TCs that cross into or form in the Mozambique Channel usually move south and then recurve southeast out into the open ocean (e.g., Diab et al. First, sea level pressure anomalies to the south of the Mozambique Channel were positive during January and February, indicating increased anticyclonic ridging south of Africa and unfavorable conditions for the southward track of tropical depressions. https://www.chronicle.co.zw/cyclone-to-hit-southern-zimbabwe Bull. Eline also killed 12 people in Zimbabwe and 21 people in South Africa. In fact, rapid strengthening occurred during the next 6 h, prompting a hurricane warning to be issued at 1200 UTC with expected landfall within the next 12–24 h. Six hours prior to landfall, Eline became an intense tropical cyclone just 45 km from the Mozambique coast. (b) SST anomalies for Jan 2000. Meteorology of the Southern Hemisphere, D. J. Karoly and D. G. Vincent, Eds., Amer. %PDF-1.2 %���� Although Eline occurred farther south (17°–18°S), these plots indicate (not shown) that over 8°–12°S, 50°–70°E, the thermocline was indeed deeper than the model climatology during January and early February 2000. Keywords Cyclone Idai Flood disaster management Local knowledge and action Social networks Zimbabwe 1 Introduction In Zimbabwe, the past two decades have been punctuated by a series of cyclones, which have left serious impacts in the entire socioeconomic system. The cyclonic feature over northern Namibia– southern Angola is more focused and slightly stronger than that for pentad 1, with increased flux from the SWIO compared to the mean flow. TC Eline made landfall in Mozambique at about 0600 UTC 22 February 2000 after tracking over 7000 km west across the tropical south Indian Ocean (Figs. Wea. Over southern Namibia, the February and March rainfall were each over two standard deviations above average and JFM 2000 represented by far the wettest season since 1976. 11c. Structure and mechanisms of south Indian Ocean climate variability. In fact, the strongest recorded gust (137 km h−1) occurred in northwest Mauritius a few hours later at noon LT. Two other stations also recorded wind gusts over 100 km h−1 during the late morning of February 15 after the “no warning” signal had been issued. Two important statistics are the mean position errors in the along-track (AT) and cross-track (CT) directions. J. The last major cyclone to reach Zimbabwe, Cyclone Idai in March last year, hit Chimanimani. About 25–40 mm fell over southeastern Namibia on 1 March as the convective activity began to shift eastward with the westerly migration of the cloud band and the subsequent ridging of the next South Atlantic anticyclone behind the front. Heming, J. T., 2001: Summary of tropical cyclone activity and forecasts in the 1999–2000 Southern Hemisphere season. 3d,e) prior to landfall in Mozambique. Jury, M. R., 1993: A preliminary study of climatological associations and characteristics of tropical cyclones in the SW Indian Ocean. Large-scale circulation patterns are also fundamental for influencing TC evolution. RESCUE OPERATION: Villagers in Mataga, Mberengwa, rescue the driver of a Toyota Surf who was attempting to cross a flooded Matindingu River on Friday. Forecasters could have recognized these at the time as indicating the likelihood of significant impacts of Eline over southern Africa. This tropical trough evolved ahead of a cold front approaching the far southwest coast from the South Atlantic, and these two systems formed a tropical–extratropical cloud band on 29 February and 1 March (Fig. 1). Less well known is that one of the weather systems that contributed to these floods (ex-Tropical Cyclone Eline) … Although there were some errors in the predicted speed and intensity of Eline, La Réunion forecasts were generally quite accurate regarding track and landfall position. RESCUE OPERATION: Villagers in Mataga, Mberengwa, rescue the driver of a Toyota Surf who was attempting to cross a flooded Matindingu River on Friday. After Eline began restrengthening and turned more to th… Less than 5% of southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones actually make landfall on the east coast of southern Africa and even fewer significantly penetrate into the interior, because of the relatively dry 1–1.5-km-high interior plateau that covers most of the region. 0000000871 00000 n Waters immediately southeast of Madagascar were 0.5°–2°C cooler than average during both months (Figs. Further research is needed, but this suggests that improved TC predictability could result if a (Tropical Atmosphere Ocean) TAO-type monitoring array is established in the tropical SWIO. Jury, M. R., , Pathack B. , , and Parker B. , 1999: Climatic determinants and statistical prediction of tropical cyclone days in the southwest Indian Ocean. For example, the 1200 UTC 20 February bulletin forecast slight intensification during the next 12 h and landfall by 1200 UTC 21 February— actual landfall was 42 h later at about 0600 UTC 22 February. NCEP reanalyses indicate that most of central and western southern Africa had significant positive soil moisture anomalies in December 1999, and these wetter soil conditions intensified further in January 2000. Figures 1 and 9a suggest that Eline's westward track along about 17°S during 7–17 February followed the 28°C surface isotherm. Cyclone Idai triggered floods in The tropical storm, named Cyclone … We thank two anonymous reviewers for their comments, which helped to improve the paper. These scores indicate the improvements available from the UKMO NWP model, particularly with increasing lead time. 1). Dr. Beenay Pathack, Mauritius Meteorological Services, provided Fig. 2000), the January and February 2000 anomalies show stronger subtropical high pressure in the SWIO, further enhancing the already favorable La Niña westward steering flow toward Mozambique. Orography is well known by local meteorologists to be important for modifying rainfall over much of southern Africa. The Tropical Cyclone Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) with World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) forecasting responsibility for the SWIO (5°–30°S, 90°E to the southern African mainland) is La Réunion (Météo France). Relief reaches Zimbabwe's cyclone survivors as death toll rises | … Soc, 77 , 437–471. The last major cyclone to reach Zimbabwe, Cyclone Idai in March last year, hit Chimanimani. La Réunion uses the ECMWF IFS model and the French ARPEGE model, for which a version with approximately 40-km uniform resolution has been fitted to oceanic tropical regions. margin: 0; Even fewer penetrate to any significant extent into the mainland, because of the 1–1.5-km-high interior plateau and relatively dry surface conditions over most of southern Africa. Northern Namibia received significant rainfall (regional average over 10 mm) on 27 February (Fig. Each southern African country has its own meteorological service but only the South African Weather Service runs a regional NWP model (Eta). Cyclone Idai, which devastated Zimbabwe’s eastern border districts of Chimanimani and Chipinge in mid March after drowning Mozambique’s second largest city of Beira, has been described by the United Nations’ World Food Programme (WFP) Executive Director David Beasley as the biggest natural disaster to hit the region in living memory. 2003). This bias was larger for 60°–70°E, where the models tended to forecast a track more due west or even west-southwest rather than the observed turn to the north (Fig. Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall over Mozambique. On Mauritius, the cyclone produced wind gusts of 137 km/h (85 mph), along with heavy rainfall that peaked at 405 mm (15.9 in) at Sans Souci. TRMM data suggests that this tongue was even warmer than that shown in Fig. } Given that La Niña state and regional circulation, SST, and rainfall anomalies are available in near real time over the internet, local forecasters across the region could have been in a heightened state of alertness by January 2000. The Eta model horizontal resolution is a uniform 0.5°, so it does not capture local vegetation gradients between the Kruger National Park (savanna) and neighboring farms (mainly fruit, sugar, and cattle) and pine or eucalyptus plantations, or orographic details. Email: cjr@egs.uct.ac.za. Geogr, 21 , 23–50. A further favorable feature for the continued development of the storm was cyclonic wind shear present between the 850-hPa (just above the interior plateau of southern Africa) and 700-hPa levels over the region (not shown). 5). Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimal interpolation. Information brochure, Météo France, La Réunion, 12 pp. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) sensor package. 10) were also present in the tropical (subtropical and midlatitude) south Indian Ocean. It is only after it has passed over Madagascar and entered the Mozambique Channel Due to the huge damage and loss of life, global media attention was extensive. Andrew Singleton produced some of the figures. Given the continuing westward track and advice that there was no longer danger of wind gusts exceeding 120 km h−1, a “no warning” signal was issued at 0930 LT that day; however, the bulletin stressed that strong gusts up to 100 km h−1 and heavy rains would persist for some time. 2003) suggest that improved seasonal skill in forecasting the interannual variability in TC tracks and frequency could be used to predict the risk of Mozambican landfall. Vitart et al. Both La Réunion (RSMC La Réunion 2002) and the UKMO (Heming 1994, 2001) provide basic information about forecast errors. Climate, 15 , 3096–3103. At 0600 UTC 22 February, the bulletin noted that the eye was on the Mozambique coast and forecast that Eline would track into Zimbabwe within 36–48 h. Thus, conditions over the landmass were, together with those of the south Indian Ocean, very favorable for Eline's intensification near Mozambique and penetration 2000 km inland. padding: 0; 9), favoring local intensification and landfall of tropical systems. Keeping an eye on the hurricane—Verification of tropical cyclone forecast tracks at the Met Office. display: flex; Flood producing weather systems: Tropical cyclones. 0000000947 00000 n At 0600 UTC 22 February, the bulletin noted that the eye was on the Mozambique coast and forecast that Eline would track into Zimbabwe within 36–48 h. Other south Indian Ocean TCs have tended to track on, or just north of, this isotherm (Jury 1993). At least 172 deaths have been reported and 327 people are reportedly missing in Zimbabwe (OCHA, 27 March 2019). Due to the huge damage and loss of life, global media attention was extensive. A local maximum of relative vorticity at 850 hPa is used to identify the center of the TC in the model with a surface fitting technique to locate it accurately. Real-time advisory positions produced by La Réunion were used to verify observations of the location of the system. La Niña conditions strengthened again during early 2000 after a lull in mid-1999 and warm SST anomalies evolved near Mozambique (Fig. 8b), and southern Namibia was relatively dry. The 26 February– 1 March pentad (Fig. Cyclone Eline, with speeds of 120km per hour, hit Zimbabwe, Mozambique, South Africa and other countries in the region with devastating effects. With the exception of Jury and Pathack (1991), Jury (1993), and Jury et al. (a)–(h) Daily interpolated outgoing longwave radiation (contour interval 30 W m−2) from NCEP–NCAR for various days between 22 Feb and 1 Mar. At least 172 deaths have been reported and 327 people are reportedly missing in Zimbabwe (OCHA, 27 March 2019). 0000003460 00000 n 1) and contributed significantly to the semidesert region of southern Namibia having its wettest summer since 1976 and the third wettest of the last 50 years. In February 2000, Cyclone Eline hit central Mozambique after weeks of flooding, and their combined effects killed around 700 people and caused an estimated $500 million (USD) in damage. U.K. Met. Zimbabweans Still Recovering a Year After Cyclone Idai | Voice of … The main tool used by La Réunion is an integrated software system (SYNERGIE) that allows the forecaster to build a conceptual model of the real and future state of the atmosphere by overlaying all available observations, radar and satellite imagery, objective analyses and NWP products. At the same time, the anticyclone in the SWIO strengthened, leading to northeasterly flow of moist air at low levels over eastern South Africa and further development of the heat low to the south (Figs. In mid-March 2019, a devastating cyclone tore through Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe, killing hundreds of people so far and causing massive flooding. In this section, we consider the question as to whether the large-scale climatic and ocean conditions during austral summer 2000 also helped promote Eline's anomalous evolution. These forecasting challenges are particularly pronounced over Namibia, where the inherent atmospheric conditions add to the difficulties. 0000020370 00000 n Kirkia (2002) 18(1): 63-71 TREE DAMAGE BY CYCLONE ELI NE IN THE BUNGA FOREST, ZIMBABWE R.M. As Eline approached on 14 February, Mauritius Meteorological Services issued increasing levels of warning, with a class III cyclone warning at 1245 local time (LT) when Eline was 350 km to the northeast (Fig. When in range, La Réunion or Mauritius radar data are also used. van Heerden, J., , and Taljaard J. J. , 1988: Africa and surrounding waters. Zimbabwe and Malawi. These areas included the track of ex-TC Eline across southern Africa, implying that the precursor surface conditions over the land were considerably moister than average. Soc., 141–174. Although inland penetration is highly unusual, there were in fact three large-scale precursor features in existence over the region that have previously been identified as favoring a westward track of TCs (Olivier 1993). 0000002061 00000 n Other satellite products, available to La Réunion after the 1998/99 season, are from research-type platforms (Special Sensor Microwave Imager, Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission, Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit) and have led to improvements in TC forecast accuracy (RSMC La Réunion 2002). During the 3 days following Eline's landfall on 22 February, stations near the interior escarpment of northeastern South Africa received rainfall of 400–550 mm (about 3 times the February mean), whereas the Eta model totals for this time were about 100–150 mm. 9b,c), discouraging a track farther south into the SWIO as is usual. The 1200 UTC bulletin advised that widespread rain was expected over northeastern South Africa with a few heavy falls over the northern escarpment within the next 12–24 h. At 0200 UTC 23 February, the SAWB issued a warning for heavy rains in the far north of the country and highlighted the fact that ex-Eline was moving farther inland. Cyclone Idai: Mozambique city of Beira hit by storm - BBC News Climatic variability and change over southern Africa: A reflection on underlying processes. Mason, S. J., , and Jury M. R. , 1997: Climatic variability and change over southern Africa: A reflection on underlying processes. Phys, 51 , 101–115. Natl. 1998). 1996), Meteosat images obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and synoptic charts from the then South African Weather Bureau (SAWB) to analyze the penetration of Eline into southern Africa. This may be something that could be implemented by forecast offices with more resources, for example, RSMC La Réunion. 9). It is argued that by keeping informed of current rainfall, vegetation, and soil moisture conditions over southern Africa, as well as evolving climate signals in the tropical oceans, local forecasters could at least be in a state of heightened alert in advance, since these factors significantly influence extreme weather event characteristics in the region. Contour interval 1°C with SST above 28°C shaded. There are only four sounding stations along the roughly 3000 km of coastline in South Africa (Alexander Bay, Cape Town, Port Elizabeth, and Durban), and these now provide soundings only every 24 h instead of every 12 h. In northern South Africa, there are two stations, Irene (25.7°S, 28.2°E) and Pietersburg (23.9°S, 29.5°E), both of which try to make two ascents during summer. Since then the remnants of storm have been causing heavy rains over Zimbabwe and Malawi. }. At 200 hPa (not shown), positive anomalies and divergence existed over the eastern/central tropical south Indian Ocean during the 2 weeks before Eline reached 90°E on 8 February. 0000007034 00000 n It has been argued that large-scale precursor synoptic conditions (strong ridge south of the Mozambique Channel, preceding trough over southern Africa, and an easterly steering current at midlevels) promoted the track of Eline. Section 4 discusses regional forecasting of this event. January and February, ex-Eline passed the Mozambique/Zimbabwe border some 200 km inland from the Mozambique Zimbabwe... Gutu, Buhera and Zaka be cognizant of Seasonal forecasts and evolving anomalies. Something that could be implemented by forecast offices present in the SWIO were found by these authors further. Réunion forecasts, and Smith T. M., 1994: Keeping an eye on the 22nd February. 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